Dodgers Emailbag, Part Deux
The Gavin Lux Edition.
Due to popular demand, I’m running back-to-back emailbags. Actually, that’s not entirely honest. The demand isn’t all that popular. What’s honest is that with the Dodgers current offseason being only a wee bit more exciting than last year’s lockout version, I’ve found myself covering the same topics repeatedly, I’m exhausted because of it, and I’m turning to you to help snap me out of this funk.
Let’s see how well that worked out, shall we, beginning with the nails-on-a-chalkboard topic, my personal Waterloo, shortstop Gavin Lux.
Question:
Answer: I appreciate both the question and the humor, Pirate At Law, but to be clear, I never said Lux wouldn’t be the Opening Day shortstop, because it’s just one game, March 30 at Los Angeles, likely versus Arizona’s ace right-hander, Zac Gallen. What I’ve said is that Lux won’t be the regular shortstop. And while admittedly my angst has grown some of late, I remain hopeful that the now 25-year-old Lux will spend the bulk of his fifth season in the majors at second base. As I’ve said repeatedly, if the Dodgers acquire a center fielder who can hit — and I mean really hit — they can afford to carry a glove-first shortstop in 2023. As it stands now, Miguel Rojas is that glove man. Jacob Amaya might have been too, but alas.
Q:
A: It’s best to take everything Andrew Friedman says with a grain of salt (salt substitute if you’re hypertensive). His goal is to use the greatest number of syllables imaginable to convey the least information, and he’s damn good at it. Let’s parse words:
Friedman: “But some of these guys are going to be big parts of what we do in L.A., and I think Gavin Lux is a great example of that. He came up as a shortstop, extremely highly touted, and last year we got to really see just how dynamic of a player he can be. He was having a really good year, and Freddie Freeman has been great for Luxy, then he had a little injury and came back and wanted to get back quickly, and the numbers fell off a little bit. But he really performed well in the ’22 season, and we think there’s even more in the tank. So we’re excited about Luxy, we think he’s going to be in the middle of a lot of things for us going forward.”
Translation: Lux was highly touted because of his bat, showed what he could do before the injury last season and is poised to be a force in 2023. With the bat. You have not seen AF or any other Dodgers personnel man refer to the former Minor League Player of the Year as a legitimate major league shortstop. Because he isn’t one. The 59 errors in 248 games and the .940 fielding percentage in the minor leagues should tell you all you need to know. The advanced metrics aren’t particularly kind to the young man either.
Q:
A: Why Gavin Lux, silly! Back-to-back Gavins.
Q:
A: While I wasn’t onboard with the trade and think Amaya might outhit Rojas as soon as this year, the club wasn’t as high on him as you might think. But the wrist injury is minor. Rojas is plenty capable of handling the shortstop position full-time.
Q:
A: Like many of my readers, Daniel knows how to push my buttons. It’s all in good fun, however. The answer is no. Thankfully, Dave Roberts knows. No, no, no, no, no! No bunting!!
Q:
A: No. Roberts’ job is secure.
Q:
A: A trade before pitchers and catchers report in 11 days? Unlikely, but Opening Day, perhaps. Let’s hope so. I doubt Corbin Burnes is on the table, however, and the Willy Adames-to-short ship sailed the minute Rojas hit town. And Reynolds probably gets a midseason ticket out of Pittsburgh, rather than a preseason one. A deal with the Cards may be in the cards though, with center fielder Dylan Carlson being the target there. Stay tuned.
Q:
A: Great question, Mark. There aren’t a lot of examples of pitcher returning to form after a second Tommy John surgery. Nathan Eovaldi, Daniel Hudson and Jameson Taillon come to mind, but there are another 40 or so guys who have struggled, many of whom were out of baseball years before they would’ve liked.
Although he’s in the news for something else now, for the most recent example, Mike Clevinger, posted a 4.33 ERA in his second TJ comeback in 2022, with career worsts in (FIP 4.97) and strikeouts per nine (7.22). Hilariously, if you remove his ERA versus Los Angeles (9.69), the season mark is 3.64. And in case you missed it, the Dodgers hit .291/.365/.582 against him in the regular season last year, and 1.000 during the National League Division Series.
I’m keeping a good thought about Walker Buehler all the same, but I think it best to keep the expectations in check.
Q:
A: A wild card series or an NLDS, maybe. But a World Series, as presently constituted -- Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Sydergaard, Dustin May and Gonsolin -- no. But because of injuries the ‘23 Dodgers are going to employ 23 starters prior to October. Fine, 23 is an exaggeration, but eight to 10 is reality, and if one or two of new men come from outside the organization (Anaheim, anyone?), then sure.
Q:
A: J.D. Martinez, who will be fine. Better than fine.
Q:
A: They could make a deal for and/or with Shohei Ohtani today, a year from today or at some time in between. If anything, and contrary to the consensus, the fact that Angels owner Arte Moreno is sticking around for the foreseeable future makes it more likely that the two-way superstar will be traded, become the big boss must know that Ohtani has had enough of losing. He’s simply not going to re-sign.
Q:
A: This question might best be answered by Urias’ agent, Scott Boras, whose clients generally walk independent of their specific club. And because the vast majority of free-agent contracts in excess of $100 million are signed by players moving to new cities, the odds are 2023 is the Teenager’s last in Los Angeles.
Q:
A: Neither Steve Garvey nor Gary Sheffield is ever getting into Cooperstown; the former primarily because of his relatively low career on base percentage (.329) and home run total (272), and because the electorate doesn’t value postseason performance properly, and Sheff because of his defense and a performance enhancing drug known as the Clear. That said, I’m not a huge fan of Mr. Rolen. And despite my efforts, I don’t have a vote. Perhaps I’ll share that story sometime.
Q:
A: Busch is one of my favorite Dodgers prospects, we’re going to see him this year and you’re going to like what you see. And please ignore the nonsense about his being a liability in the field. L.A. just gave Lux four seasons to come into his own with the bat while shielding their eyes at his infield play. And outfield play. Busch is going to develop in considerably less time.
ICYMI:
The Dodgers avoided an arbitration hearing with Tony Gonsolin, by agreeing to a two-year $6.65 million contract Tuesday. Given his 2023 performance (16-1, 2.14, 0.875, 8.2 strikeouts per nine) and his lifetime (26-6, 2.51, 0.987, 8.8), the club is getting right-hander essentially for free.
Los Angeles added 33-year-old journeyman northpaw Matt Andriese to its list of spring invitees on a minor-league contract Wednesday.
And you can find the club’s 2023 coaching staff here, the big change being Danny Lehmann’s promotion to bench coach, with Bob Geren moving into a new role as major league field coordinator.
Media Savvy:
Keith Law’s top 100 prospects story is out this week at the Athletic. Dodgers included are Diego Cartaya, Miguel Vargas, Bobby Miller, Gavin Stone, Dalton Rushing, Andy Pages, Michael Busch and James Outman, in that order. Law notes Miller’s issues pitching out of trouble, citing his .278/.335/.451 mark with men on base at Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City in 2022. Contrast that with Ryan Pepiot’s .175/.297/.381 line versus major-league hitters, and you begin to understand my fondness for Pepiot.
While only one is baseball-related, I thought you might enjoy two columns about old geezers by Steve Lopez at the Los Angeles Times: “At 88, fastballs are flying at him, and this slugger is swinging for the fences” and “A 91-year-old drummer meets John Densmore of the Doors, and the music soars.”
As a follow-up to our December mention of MLB.com stats guru and ALS patient Sarah Langs I’m pleased to report that she has been honored with the Casey Stengel “You Could Look It Up” Award by the New York chapter of the BBWAA. Elizabeth Muratore has the story at MLB.com.
And finally, please find Sarah’s latest piece, “Here are the top candidates for a 40-40 season,” at MLB.com.
Baseball Photos of the Week:
Rod Carew.
Mickey Lolich, 1968 World Series Game 2.
Bob Uecker and Johnny Carson.
Mickey Hatcher homering off Storm Davis, 1988 World Series Game 5.
Don Drysdale pitching to the Pirates Gene Alley, September 15, 1966.
Reggie Jackson and Gary Coleman.
Kobe Bryant.
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the Internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter. Follow OBHC on Twitter here. Read OBHC online here.