Dodgers Spending Like Drunken Sailors. But Is There a Method to the Madness?

L.A. has its DH. And an ace. And another ace.

Dec 22, 2023

Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Yomiuri Shimbun via AP Images.

The Dodgers are spending money like drunken sailors. Which is generally the purview of men in San Diego.

A week after rocking the sports world by bringing superstar Shohei Ohtani to Los Angeles on a 10-year, $700 million contract (yes, with $680 million of it deferred), Owner & Chairman Mark Walter reached into his wallet for $325 million more to sign right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 12 years. The club will also pay Yamamoto’s former Nippon Professional Baseball team, the Orix Buffaloes, a $51 million posting fee.

In between, Andrew Friedman swapped Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca to Tampa for Santa Clarita native Tyler Glasnow, a 6’ 8” righty starter, and outfielder Manuel Margot. Glasnow was quickly inked to a five-year, $136.5 million extension. The Rays kicked in $2 million to help offset Margot’s $10 million 2024 salary, with another $2 million due if L.A. picks up his $12 million option for 2025.

All told, the Boys in Blue “spent” $1,219,500,000 in a week’s time. The use of the quote marks is intended to dispel a common misunderstanding about such arrangements. Importantly, the Dodgers did not actually “spend” $700 million on Ohtani alone last week, or even the more commonly used $460 million present-day-dollars figure. They’re spending it over a 20-year period, between the years 2024 and 2043.

Admittedly, I’m splitting hairs. The numbers are staggering. And the idea that the club is trying to buy a World Series championship — forgetting for a moment whether that’s a thing that can actually be accomplished — has made them, arguably, the West Coast version of the Yankees’ Evil Empire. I’m only quoting, remember.

But is there a method to the madness? Maybe. Kinda slash sorta.

As I suggested last week, and has been amplified plenty elsewhere, it’s reasonable to expect the Dodgers to actually make money on the Ohtani deal. He’s a once in a century player at the very least, a worldwide figure with an enormous following, which will only grow away from the bushes of Anaheim and into the nurturing sunlight of Tinsel Town. There simply was no way L.A. was going to let this one-time-only player go to another club. Or to another city.

They could have let Yamamoto go elsewhere, however. They could have passed, and found their high-quality innings in the name of some other starting pitcher. Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman, Shane Bieber, Corbin Burnes (and I wouldn’t put him past them even now), to name a handful.

But Yamamoto is a unique catch; a rare pitcher to reach free agency at the age of 25, with 967 2/3 innings under his belt, spread over seven Japan Western League seasons. The numbers? Well, how does a 75-30 lifetime record, with a 1.72 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, 216 walks and 986 strikeouts grab you? Or three straight pitching triple crowns, or three straight Sawamura Awards, the Japanese equivalent of the Cy Young Award, including the most recent one, in which he went 17-6, with a 1.16, 0.860, 28 and 176 in 171. The knock on Yamamoto, if there is one, is that he is a smallish 5’ 10” and 176 pounds, an eerily similar figure to Pedro Martinez’s 5’ 11” and 170. No matter, as far is the home team is concerned. They have their ace.

Glasnow is no slouch either, and up until this evening I was happy to call the (taller) RHP the L.A. ace. With 2021 Tommy John surgery behind him, he’s better than may be indicated when looking at his career statistics, which are as follows: 30-27, a 3.89 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 1.206 WHIP, with 678 strikeouts in 529 2/3, for a quite-high 11.5 SO/9. Please note the 2019-2023 numbers, which include the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, as well as the TJS-shortened ‘21 season: 26-11, 3.03, 2.89, 1.013 with 462 in 332 2/3, for an eye-popping 12.5.

So yeah, the Dodgers have their ace, and their other ace and their DH, who might just be an ace in 2025. And yeah, they’re sailors on shore leave, possibly drunk and possibly sober. Who am I to say?

Yes, with a late-Thursday-night 2024 payroll estimate in the neighborhood of $280 million, there will be luxury tax payments to be made. Large ones. But then, Los Angeles has some really nice neighborhoods. Messrs. Ohtani, Yamamoto, Glasnow and Walter can show you around, if you’re in the market for a home.

Have I answered the method-to-the-madness question mentioned in the headline to your satisfaction? Perhaps not. But look at it this way: Ohtani rests in a category of one. One in 100 years’ time, with only Babe Ruth being even remotely comparable. But even given that, and even ignoring the potential profit he’ll bring in return for his services, that $46 million present-day dollars he’s making — that’s the official figure for luxury take purposes — represents a pocket-change difference as compared to 40-year-old Justin Verlander’s average annual value (AAV) of $43.3 million, or 39-year-old Max Scherzer’s $43.3 million. Sure, it’s a larger dose of cash more than Mike Trout’s $35 million AAV, but in each of the three examples, the respective clubs signed up to pay almost entirely for past performance. The Dodgers are paying for future performance. Investing in future performance, you might say; in 29-year-old Ohtani, 25-year-old Yamamoto and 30-year-old Glasnow.

Equally important is the prospect that with even as little as one All-Star-like season each from the three men, especially if it’s the next one, they could be playing for below-market salaries. Yamamoto will be locked into his $27 million per year; Glasnow his $27.3 million. One might argue that they’re below market already, considering that the Cardinals are set to pay 34-year-old, 5’ 10”, Sonny Gray $30 million per from 2024 through ‘26.

That’s my two cent’s worth, which, if my arithmetic is correct, is a tad bit less than the 1,219,500,000,000 cents the Dodgers have committed to spend recently.

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ICYMI:

Ohtani won the 2023 AP Male Athlete of the Year Award Thursday. He was honored with a Hank Aaron Award Sunday. He was named to the 2023 All-MLB First Team, as the American League’s best designated hitter the same day. Former Dodger shortstop, Corey Seager was also a first-team AL winner, with Betts and Freeman being named to the first-team in the National League, in right field and at first base, respectively.

Are you ready? Major League Baseball, in its infinite wisdom is tinkering with the rules again. Unsurprisingly, the MLBPA is miffed.

The Dodgers have signed righty reliever Daniel Hudson to a minor-league contract. RHP Nabil Crismatt and left fielder Travis Swaggerty have also been given minor-league deals, with an invitation to Spring Training.

Scherzer will miss the first half of the 2024 season following back surgery. That $21 or $22 million will buy him a truckload of Doan’s, doans ya know.

Major League Baseball’s new Spring Breakout Series, which will be a sort of spring All-Star showcase for young players, is schedule for March 14-17.

“On what would have been his 100th birthday, Larry Doby…the oft-overlooked baseball pioneer who integrated the American League with the 1947 Cleveland Indians and served his country during World War II, was posthumously honored with the Congressional Gold Medal in a ceremony Wednesday at the National Statuary Hall at the U.S. Capitol. His son, Larry Doby Jr., who accepted the newly minted gold coin on his behalf, described the experience as “overwhelming.”

Media Savvy:

“Remember that time when Candlestick Park was closing so they paraded Tommy Lasorda out to give Giants fans one more chance to boo him with That’s Amore playing and his name was misspelled on his jacket? That was awesome.” Video via Rocco Constantino of Ball Nine here.

“During their pitch to Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers had an ace in the hole. ‘One of the highlights of the whole meeting,’ Ohtani said. It was a 6-year-old video of Kobe Bryant encouraging him to join the Dodgers.” By Jeff Passan at ESPN.com.

The best story on the topic to date — “Why Shohei Ohtani’s Contract Structure Is Not A Luxury Tax Dodge” — by Tim Dierkes at MLBTR.

Here is “Meet Shohei Ohtani’s surgeon, who fixes sports’ biggest stars and saved his $700-million arm,” by Sam Farmer at the Los Angeles Times. Meanwhile I am 40 years out from shoulder surgery performed by Dr. Frank Jobe, the inventor of Tommy John surgery, after which I became a (short) first baseman. Do not try this at home.

Former Giants’ great, Buster Posey, proving to be anything but media savvy, stuck a cleat in him mouth in commenting about San Francisco’s missing out on yet another free agent star player, in Ohtani. With this: “Something I think is noteworthy, something that unfortunately keeps popping up from players and even the players’ wives is, there’s a bit of an uneasiness with the city itself, as far as the state of the city, with crime, with drugs.” He went on to qualify that there is a perception that the above is true. His perception, I’d argue. Sam Fels let him have it, at Deadspin.

The indispensable Baseball-Reference’s 2023 year in review is now available for your consideration.

And finally, go to Spectrum News 1 to read about the walkout of Southern California News Group writers which occurred December 15, just in time for the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett not to attend the Ohtani press conference at Dodger Stadium. Find Bill’s comments on the matter here and here.

Baseball Photos of the Week:

Armando Galarraga, after first base umpire Jim Joyce blew an easy call on what would have been the 27th out of his perfect game. Story and video here.