Second Look at Dodgers Opening Day Roster

Los Angeles continues as World Series favorites, and none of the mini roster controversies changes that a lick.

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

About the only thing that’s changed conclusively since our first look at the Dodgers roster February 16 is Joe Kelly’s status for Opening Day, which is April 1 at Denver. Since the club is cryptic about such things, we don’t know exactly why Kelly has been delayed, but delayed he is. And opportunity knocks.

Aside from the Kelly thing, a possible mini-controversy for the fifth spot in the rotation and a bench role, Los Angeles is good to go. And good enough to repeat as World Series champions. Here is my 26-man roster prediction 16 days out:

Starting rotation (5): Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Trevor Bauer, David Price and Julio Urias, in that order.

Comment: While the defense was awful behind him, Urias struggled in the first inning again Sunday. Dave Roberts had to come and get him after 30 pitches, the result being the left-hander’s second rough start out of three spring outings, after a 9.00 first-inning ERA last year. He’s got three turns to earn a rotation sport, or have Dustin May or Tony Gonsolin take the ball instead.

I warned David Vassegh that I was gonna rip him for the “Dustin May will never be a strikeout pitcher” remark in the pregame show last night and I deliver on that promise here. Not only will May develop into more of a swing-and-miss pitcher than he is now, he’s been on track since his 2016 rookie league days, putting up a 9.0 strikeouts per nine innings as an 18, 19, 20 and 21-year-old minor leaguer and recording an 8.6 in his first year with the big club in 2019. To give you an idea, Nolan Ryan was good for an 8.9 SO/9 in his age 21 season as a Met in 1968. And Kershaw managed an 8.4 as a rookie in 2008. May is a stud. Enough with the foolishness.

Moving on.

Bullpen (8): Kenley Jansen, Corey Knebel, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Victor Gonzalez, Jimmy Nelson, May and Gonsolin.

Comment: Nelson has been impressive in the spring (5 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 Ks) and is poised to replace Kelly. But beware another injury for the 6’ 6” 250-pound right-hander, which is always a possibly.

After González, L.A. does not have a great second left-handed relief option. Urias could solve that problem, but for the moment I’m predicting seven righties and one lefty in the pen. I can see Andrew Friedman choosing between southpaws Scott Alexander and Garrett Cleavinger over May or Gonsolin, however, and so can you.

Starting lineup (8): Mookie Betts (right field), Corey Seager (shortstop), Justin Turner (third base), Cody Bellinger (center field), Max Muncy (first base), Will Smith (catcher) AJ Pollock (left field), Chris Taylor (second base) and the pitcher’s spot.

Comment: That is a great eight. A great eight. The only question is Bellinger’s surgically-repaired right shoulder. He’s expected to appear in his first exhibition action this week.

Bench (5): Austin Barnes, Edwin Rios, Zach McKinstry, DJ Peters and Gavin Lux.

Comment: Matt Beaty could replace Rios or Lux rather easily. The same is true for either Matt Davidson or Sheldon Neuse with Peters. I wouldn’t count on the switch-hitting Keibert Ruiz (cut today) landing as a third catcher slash pitch hitter (he’s slashing 1.000/1.000/1.500, with a slash double and a single in his first two at bats of the spring), but I certainly wouldn’t object.

ICYMI:

A few injury updates from around the game.

I wasn’t a fan of Tony La Russa the first time around and I don’t like him now. More importantly, the White Sox made their first postseason appearance since 2008 last year with Rich Renteria at the helm during a four-year rebuild that had begun to bear fruit. He didn’t deserve to be fired, and certainly not for an old-school guy who’d managed more DUIs (two) than ballgames (zero) in the last nine years. Why the Chicago teams (see Cubs) find it necessary to screw a guy like Renteria, I have no idea. But it bothers me. La Russa says he returned to the game because “the opportunity is real.” Good for him. It was real for the previous guy, too.

The generally-underappreciated Nick Markakis retired Friday. He finishes with a .288/.357/.423 line, with 2038 hits, 514 doubles, 189 homers, 1046 RBIs and a 34 bWar in 15 seasons with the Orioles and Braves.

Probably a Bit More About Zack Greinke Than You’d Like:

We’re going to talk about Zack Greinke a fair amount in this space, and probably to excess, because he’s one of my favorite players of all time. I just love him. I love Greinke the pitcher for obvious reasons, I love that he had the best stint of his career in Los Angeles (51-15, 2.03, 1.027) and I especially love that he’s the Dodgers franchise leader in both winning percentage (.773) and ERA (2.30). Sure, it was only a three-year run, but do you know how many guys have logged three years in 137 seasons of club history going all the way back to the 1884 Brooklyn Atlantics? I don’t either, but I still think the stat is significant one.

I love that Greinke is a stick (.223, with 29 doubles, nine homers, 34 RBIs lifetime and a 5.1 oWAR), and that he has a homer off Clayton Kershaw in three career at bats. I love the way he mans the position and I love the six Gold Gloves, including two in L.A. I love that he’ll take out a shortstop on a double play and I love that he was successful on each of his first nine career stolen base attempts, before finally being caught in his more recent try in 2019, as a 35-year-old Astro.

Media Savvy:

After speaking with 15 of Greinke’s catchers, Jayson Jenks and Rustin Dodd, put together a hilarious collection of their comments, at the Athletic. Ex-Dodgers A.J. Ellis and Drew Butera are among those quoted, as is current-Dodger Tim Federowicz, Jason Kendall, John Buck and Jonathan Lucroy. I defy you to continue to dislike Greinke after reading the piece. Here is my favorite quote, from former-DBacks catcher Alex Avila:

“He was throwing one of his first bullpens in spring training, and we were getting to know each other. We’re sitting there, and the grounds crew is mowing the outfield. He’s staring at the guy mowing the lawn. Out of nowhere, he asks me, “What kind of grass do you think this is?” Then he asks me about the lawnmower and whether having grass or turf in your yard is better. The funny thing is, earlier that offseason, I had just turfed my backyard. So we talked for an hour about grass and artificial turf. A month or so into the season, I randomly get a text message from him in the afternoon before a game. He’s sitting on a riding lawnmower in his backyard, shirtless. He went with grass. It’s a picture that I’m gonna save for the rest of my life.”

About the Athletic: I’m aware that much of what I include in this section requires a subscription. I get it, and I’m grateful that you’re paying for this one, but the Athletic is so worth the 60 bucks a year or whatever it is now. It’s truly great baseball writing. Yeah, I reached out to chief content officer Paul Fichtenbaum about a small role four times between Februarys 2018 and 2019 without receiving so much as a “go away kid, you bother me,” but they’re doing good work there. So I’m happy to plug it. Subscribe here.

(FYI, a certain Los Angeles Times editor (don’t ask) gave me reason for optimism a couple of winters ago, but no soap. Yet:)

Also at the Athletic, please read former Reds and Nationals general manager Jim Bowden’s mailbag column. Included is an answer to a question about the unconsummated trade that he regrets the most:

“With the Reds, I was close to an agreement, pending president and ownership approval, to trade third baseman Brandon Larson to the Phillies for third baseman Scott Rolen [in 2002]. The deal fell through because it was nixed by our side for financial reasons. I was devastated.”

Larson would scrape together a .179/.271/.299 mark with eight homers for the Reds in 291 at bats from 2001-2004 and was out of baseball by 2007. Rolen would play another 10 seasons after the deal-gone-bust, with a .281/.364/.490, 517 doubles, 316 homers and 1287 RBIs, with a Cooperstown destination a real possibility.

I’m hesitant to bore the reader with long explanations of new statistics (because I can bore you in so many other ways), but Buster Olney has a fun stat that is worth noting. It’s called the Crush Quotient, which is defined as “[t]otal bases divided by the number of swings a hitter takes,” invented by the ESPN baseball staff especially for Nationals right fielder Juan Soto.

Ben Cafardo, who passed away in 2019, was a tough act to follow, but Peter Abraham does a yeoman’s job with the Sunday baseball notes column at the Boston Globe. With about as much of a Red Sox focus as there is Dodgers material here, Abraham covers whatever strikes him as interesting between one column and the next, which is what I do with OBHC (typically Mondays and Thursdays). Topics in yesterday’s piece include how the Angels plan to let Shohei Ohtani be himself, new rules to be put into practice in the minor leagues in 2021 (my thoughts are on that are coming soon) and former-Boston pitcher, Rheal Cormier, who died last week after a battle with cancer at 53.

Baseball Photos of the Day:

Three left-handed swings, featuring four left-handed hitters with an L.A. connection. First is Vin Scully, with a ringing double in a sportscasters versus writers game some time in the 1950s.

Teenager Fred Lynn, USC center fielder, 1971-1973.

Bill Buckner, Dodgers first baseman, outfielder, 1969-1976.

Andre Ethier, Dodgers outfielder, 2006-2017.

Finally, in romance news, “[a] couple first met at Fenway Park 54 years ago. Last week, they were vaccinated there.”

And remember, glove conquers all.

Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the Internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter. Follow OBHC on Twitter here. Be friends with Howard on Facebook.

Read OBHC online here.