Second Look at Dodgers Opening Day Roster
Ryan Pepiot and Rubby De La Rosa in, Tony Gonsolin and Daniel Hudson out.
This has been one of my favorite preseasons ever. I believe this is the case because the 2023 spring is the first in the all-exhibition-games-televised, post-blackout era in which the Dodgers minor league talent has been broadly showcased, with many of the players taking full advantage of their opportunity to shine.
Because of the performance of the prospects, and with the usual to-be-expected injuries to veteran players, I have updated my Opening Day roster prediction from the one I posted February 15. There was always going to be a second look, and perhaps a third. Here’s how I see it this afternoon:
Rotation (5): Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, Dustin May and Ryan Pepiot.
Comment: I said in the first look that at least one of the five starters would be sidelined early in the campaign, if not prior to it, and Tony Gonsolin is that one. He sprained an ankle in PFP last week and I have a feeling that the X-ray may turn out to be insufficient, that an MRI will eventually be prescribed and that we might not see the Catman until mid-May.
I have been and remain confident in Pepiot’s ability to pick up the slack. He’s shown growth with a second opportunity at every level and he was good enough starting on odd rest with the big club in 2022 (5-3 won/loss, 3.73 ERA, 1.300 WHIP). The 25-year-old right-hander has made three appearances during spring play, with only a lone earned run allowed, on seven hits, one walk and nine strikeouts across six innings. He’s ready to man the five-spot.
While the velocity hasn’t (yet) returned in year two post Tommy John surgery, Syndergaard looks great with the stuff he has (three appearances, 0.96, 0.429, with eight strikeouts in 9 1/3.
May’s pre and post TJ stuff are the same. Watch out for him (2-0, 1.04, 1.038, 5 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 13 Ks).
Bullpen (8): Evan Phillips, Jimmy Nelson, Shelby Miller, Yency Almonte, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson, Alex Vesia and Rubby De La Rosa.
Comment: Miller has struggled (16.88, 3.375), but L.A. got him because of the strikeouts (six in 2 2/3 in the preseason) and since he’s on a major-league deal they’re not going to cut him. So he either gets stashed on the injured list for some made-up reason or makes the team outright. The same is true for Nelson, who after a rough first outing is rounding into form post TJ (0.00, 1 H, 2 IP, 4 BB, 0 Ks).
Almonte hasn’t made an appearance, but the club has expressed hope that he’ll be ready by March 30.
Hudson is said to be 100% recovered from 2022 anterior cruciate ligament surgery but has general soreness and will begin the season on the IL.
De La Rosa is the pleasant surprise (0.00, 0.600, 3 1/3, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 Ks) and I’m rooting for him.
Infielders (5): Freddie Freeman, Miguel Rojas, Miguel Vargas, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor.
Comment: Look, I’m sorry, but the Dodgers defense got a whole lot better when Gavin Lux went down for the year with the ACL. Rojas is a great shortstop, and even in a small sample size Vargas looks to be a better second baseman than Lux. Throws fired confidently and on the money.
Muncy appears night-and-day healthier than he did a year ago, with a .292/.393/.500 mark, two doubles and a home run during the exhibition season as evidence. I’d still prefer him 25 pounds lighter, but whatareyagonnado?
Taylor, who isn’t putting the bat on the ball, at all (.115/.281/.115, 26 ABs, 10 Ks) becomes the extra infielder, with Austin Barnes and Mookie Betts in a pinch. At least that’s the way I see it. It’s possible for Yonny Hernandez to make the team as an extra infielder, but I doubt it.
Outfielders (5): Betts, James Outman, David Peralta, Trayce Thompson and Jason Heyward.
Comment: I placed Heyward last because he belongs last. The Dodgers screamed earthquake when the Cubs castaway homered in batting practice, and even more so after a couple of exhibition homers early. But he’s down to 192/.300/.423 to date, with the slugging number a reflection of the homers solely.
Outman is hitting .391/.464/.783 with 2 HR and 8 RBIs and should be the OD center fielder.
Catchers (2): Will Smith and Barnes.
Comment: Nothing to see here.
DH (1): J.D. Martinez.
Comment: Martinez looks a bit like Taylor in the results department (.172/.226/.172, 29 ABs, 9 Ks), but I’m on record with a prediction of .285/.350/.500, “with a ton of damage done against left-handers (.319/.402/.597 last year)” and I’m not jumping ship on March 14.
February 15 Summary: “Los Angeles as presently constituted is an 85-to-90-win team. But they are far from a finished product. In fact, I expect a key change or two during the spring. Stay tuned for that.”
March 14 Summary: Los Angeles is a 90-to-95 win team. They’re not a finished product, but I don’t expect a key change or two during the spring.
Coming soon:
On or around Opening Day, the religious holiday which for Los Angeles is observed on March 30 this year, I will be introducing a new subscription service via Twitter. By becoming a “super follower,” you’ll receive news, analysis and opinion, as you’re getting in this space, but a lot more of it. Importantly, it’ll be daily and nearly hourly, reader-inspired content. Tell me what you want and I’ll deliver, in real time. More importantly, it’s the stuff I’d hold back on normally. No longer. This will be truly unfiltered Howard. More here, more later.
ICYMI:
Recent baseball injuries to know about include but are not limited to Rays’ right-hander Tyler Glasnow, Phillies righty Andrew Painter, Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon, Mets southpaw Jose Quintana and Giants outfielders Mitch Haniger and Luis Gonzalez, as well as shortstop Brandon Crawford. Boston’s Justin Turner is expected to return this week, which is very good news.
Following an exhibition performance in which he allowed five earned runs on five hits, three of them homers (19.29 ERA) and being cut by Los Angeles last week, Jordan Yamamoto has decided to retire. At 25. Let’s hope it’s not a permanent retirement.
Highlights:
Below is former Dodger Eddy Alvarez, who is currently in Brewers camp on a minor-league contract.
Dodgers outfielder Trayce Thompson with the long ball for Great Britain Saturday at the World Baseball Classic.
L.A’s David Peralta with the ringing double, for Venezuela in the WBC Saturday.
Two of my favorite Dodgers prospects, Michael Busch and Jonny Deluca, homering in the fifth inning Sunday.
Another of my favorite young Dodgers, Eddys Leonard, homered Monday. Look for him to begin the season at shortstop for the Double-A Tulsa Drillers. And then we’ll see.
Mookie Betts make it looks easy.
Lowlight:
Below is all of the exiled Dodger’s image that would fit in the screenshot snuggly. And the less we see of the guy’s face, the better.
Javy Báez 2017 WBC highlight:
Javy Báez 2023 WBC highlight:
Media Savvy:
Someone at the AP thinks the Padres are pondering using a six-man rotation. Uh, no they’re not, certainly not with four off days in April, and more obviously because they don’t have horses.
Don’t look now, but the pitch clock is having the desired effect. The pace of play has picked up considerably. Players have stopped strolling around the diamond for no apparent reason. Jayson Stark has the particulars at the Athletic. I’ll just add that the way in which SportsNet LA, to name one outlet, is displaying the pitch clock winding down (all 20 seconds of it) in the space that shows both the pitch count and the pitch velocity, it’s just too much. The solution is this: either return to prominently showing the pitch count and velocity in that space by cutting the pitch clock sequence down to the final five seconds, or give the pitch clock a dedicated spot elsewhere, like say in the upper left-hand corner of the frame. The rule makes sense; the full 20-second clock display is a distraction.
Jorge Castillo has the right idea about the WBC, and about the pitch count limits on Team USA’s hurlers specifically, at the Los Angeles Times; Ken Rosenthal doesn’t, at the Athletic.
Baseball Photos of the Week:
Felipe Alou, Matty Alou and Jesus Alou. Jesus passed away last week at the age of 80.
Nolan Ryan and Tom Seaver
Joe Pepitone, who passed away Monday at the age of 82.
Ted Kluszewski’s Steak House, Cincinnati.
John Denver, 1977.
Frank Howard, Dominican Republic, 1959.
Manny Mota, shown here in 1971, saved some of his best for last, recording a .355/.431/.397 slash line during his final five seasons in Los Angeles, from ages 39-44. As Vin Scully said more than once about Mota, “he could crawl out of bed on Christmas morning and hit a line drive.”
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the Internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter. Follow OBHC on Twitter here. Read OBHC online here.
Super photos, Howard. Sad to hear about Jesus Alou. As kids, we always gave him crap about the neck gyrations, and he happened to be a Giant.
And, speaking of big people, is it possible Hondo was only 6' 7"?
Despite my disappointment at the Gonsolin injury, I'm excited to see more of Pepiot.