Want Juan Soto, Dodgers Fans? Yeah, We’ll Say Goodbye to These Fine Prospects

The July issue of the Minor League Report

Dodgers prospects Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller and Miguel Vargas.

I’m not overly concerned about the prospect of losing prospects. Because I don’t expect the Dodgers to trade for Juan Soto. Because they already have a right fielder, and a good one in Mookie Betts. And because I don’t believe the club has a grand plan to part with half a billion dollars to keep Soto in Los Angeles long-term. And because I don’t think the parting with an unprecedented package of human capital to trade for a guy to play two seasons, plus the final two months of this one, fits the plan either.

I’m not saying they won’t do it, necessarily; I just don’t think they have a plan to do so. And I’m convinced there is a plan. There is always is a plan.

I think the plan is to trade for a difference-making starting pitcher, either Luis Castillo or Frankie Montas, to fill an actual need, which is to lead the starting rotation through the month of October, win a World Series and then try to repeat in 2023, while keeping most of the team’s top prospects in the fold.

Better still, what I think President of Baseball Operations Andrew Friedman would prefer is to is swing a deal with his old cohort Fabian Zaidi to bring pure starting-pitcher rental Carlos Rodon south from San Francisco, perhaps with another pure-rental, left fielder Joc Pederson. Friedman would have to overpay to do so, but overpaying for two months of the left-hander Rodon, with or without Pederson, is a considerably easier task than prying Soto out of Washington, Castillo out of Cincinnati or Montas out of Oakland. The Giants would have to fall to around the .500 level for that to be plausible, however, and Friedman’s men will have something to say about that as Zaidi’s men visit Chavez Ravine Thursday through Sunday.

Rather than any of the above, what I imagine Friedman would most prefer is to watch Dustin May return from Tommy John surgery, say, around August 15 good as new, with Andrew Heaney two weeks ahead of him, with Walker Buehler a couple weeks behind and with Tony Gonsolin, Tyler Anderson, Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias continuing to be healthy and effective as they are right now. The big boss constructed his 2022 roster the way he did for a reason, and he’s going to want to see it through.

A lot of moving parts, admittedly, and no doubt there are minor leaguers in the Dodgers system this morning who will be employed elsewhere come the trade deadline August 2. My job here is to scare you out of your drooling for other club’s stars by telling you how good things are here and now. So let’s discuss that, shall we?

The Minor League Report:

Triple-A Oklahoma City Dodgers: 52-38, tied for first place in Pacific Coast League East with the El Paso Chihuahuas in the second half; won first half.

Since his five-inning, one-run performance versus the Rockies at Dodger Stadium July 5, Ryan Pepiot has made one minor-league start, allowing four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings at Tacoma seven days later and holds a 7-0 record, a 2.35 ERA and a 1.076 WHIP, with 83 strikeouts in 61 1/3 on the campaign. Verdict: untouchable.

Twenty-two-year-old Miguel Vargas, primarily a third baseman who is being used in left field currently continues to hit as he always has, with a .295/.385/.496 slash line, 13 home runs, 64 RBIs and nine steals in 12 attempts. The career mark of .308/.381/.478, 45 HR, 247 RBIs, 40 SB, 9 CS would leave a mark on me if he were traded and I wouldn’t part with him for anyone. Verdict: Untouchable.

Outfielder Jason Martin (.283/.368/.576, 19 homers, 66 RBIs) will be 27 in September and can help the big club in 2022. Probably should be in L.A. now. Verdict: Touchable.

Shortstop Jacob Amaya was better at Double-A Tulsa (.264/.370/.500) than he is at Triple-A OKC (.239/.325/.321), which is entirely normal. We’ll know more about him in the second half and more than that in 2023, if he’s still a Dodger. Verdict: Touchable.

Like his teammate Amaya at both places, second baseman Michael Busch has struggled to a degree upon his promotion to OKC (.246/.306/.460, 10 HR, 35 RBIs) after hitting .306/.445/.667, 11 HR, 29 RBIs at the lower level. But the powerful, big and beautiful swing, like the song, remains the same. Verdict: Untouchable.

James Outman, 25 years old, center fielder: .295/.394/.553, with 16 home runs and 45 RBIs at Tulsa, .223/.333/.407 with three homers and 15 RBIs at OKC. Verdict: Touchable.

Michael Grove, 25, starting pitcher: 2.76 ERA, 0.980 WHIP with Tulsa, 4.41, 1.690 at OKC, 13.50, 2.357 at LAD. Verdict: Touchable.

Double-A Tulsa Drillers: 7-11, last place in Texas League North, four games back of first-place Wichita Wind Surge in the second half; won first half.

I continue to be impressed with Gavin Stone, more and more with each passing day. The 23-year-old right-hander made six starts for Advanced-A Great Lakes (1.44 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings pitched), he’s made 10 so far for the Drillers (1.53, 1.151, 13.2 SO9) and could probably be mowing down hitters in the Pacific Coast League as we speak. The Dodgers may hope that by not talking about the young man that they’re keeping him a secret, but they know better. Better to say the following: Verdict: Untouchable.

Perhaps nobody is talking about Stone because they’re all talking about righty Bobby Miller, and for good reason. In his two-year minor-league career, the 23-year-old starter has pitched to a 3.34 ERA, a 1.065 WHIP, with 152 strikeouts in 124 innings, good for a 11.0 SO9. Verdict: Untouchable.

Clayton Beeter, 23 years old, RHP: 4.71 ERA, 1.511 WHIP, 15.5 SO9 at Tulsa in 2022; 3.13, 1.152, 13.3 at Great Lakes in 2021. Verdict: Touchable.

Landon Knack, 24, RHP: 4.89, 1.465, 12.8 at Tulsa this year, 3.65, 1.287, 9.8 at Great Lakes last year: Verdict: Touchable.

Jonny DeLuca is an attractive outfield prospect who has been better at Double-A (.300/.364/.600, 3 HR, 8 RBIs in 11 games) than he was at Advanced-A (.246/.343/.516, 18 HR, 51 RBIs in 73 games). Some ambitious young personnel man (or Kim Ng) may come a callin’. Verdict: Touchable.

Third baseman Kody Hoese (24) has had his ups and downs, has missed time with a hamstring this season and is hitting .265/.290/.409. Verdict: Touchable.

Andy Pages: Outfielder, 21 years of age, like many of his peers was better at Advanced-A a year ago (.265/.394/.539, 31 HR, 88 RBIs) than he is at Double-A now (.235/.348/.453, 15 HR, 48 RBIs). Like few of his peers, he’s 21 years of age with 75 homers lifetime to go along with a .260/.383/.528 slash line. Verdict: Untouchable.

Advanced-A Great Lake Loons:13-8, second place in Midwest League East, three games back of the West Michigan White Caps in the second half; won first half.

Kyle Hurt is a 24-year-old right-hander who ought to be in the AA-Tulsa category above, but since he’s allowed 11 earned runs on nine hits and 12 walks in the the 6 2/3 inning of his first three outings, two of them starts, I thought not. Prior to being promoted he was off to a fine start at Great Lakes, recording a 4-2 won/loss, a 2.21 ERA, 1.057 WHIP and 14.2 SO9. So we’ll just take a beat on this one, chalk it up to experience (or inexperience) and move further on down the road. Verdict: Touchable.

Lael Lockhart: 24 years old, switch-hitter, lefty-starting pitcher, with a 3.12 ERA, 1.298 WHIP and 9.9 SO9. Verdict: Touchable.

Nick Nastrini: A 22-year-old right-hander out of UCLA with some buzz attached to his name, Nastrini is coveted around the majors and will have suitors. He sports a 4.33 ERA, a 1.286 WHIP with 99 strikeouts in 62 1/3 in 2022 after a 2.08, 1.000 with 30 strikeouts in 13 innings (for a whopping 20.8 SO9) at Rancho Cucamonga in 2021. Verdict: Untouchable.

Twenty-year-old catcher, Diego Cartaya, is the Dodgers top prospect, who is coming along nicely, despite having played in only 142 games as a professional. Those 142 would make for a nice big-league season, with numbers like these: 541 at bats, 120 runs, 152 hits, 37 doubles, three triples, 28 homers and a 101 RBIs, with nine homers and 31 RBIs in 131 of those at bats this season for at Great Lakes, to go along with a .260/.405/.550 line. He’s not going in trade for anyone other than Soto. Verdict: Untouchable.

Infielders Jorbit Vivas and Eddys Leonard (both 21 and on L.A.’s 40-man roster) are at .264/.375/.394 and 259/.351/.410, respectively, after raking at Rancho last year (.311/.389/.515 and .295/.399/.544, respectively). Verdicts: Untouchable and untouchable.

Alex De Jesus is a 20-year-old shortstop with a .286/.400/.474 combined at Rancho and Great Lakes, 11 homers and 47 RBIs. Verdict: Untouchable.

Single-A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes: 11-10, third place in California League South, one game back of Lake Elsinore Storm in the second half; second place in the first half.

Maddux Bruns, 20 years old, left-hander. Has a 4.39 ERA to go along with a 1.725 WHIP and 42 strikeouts in 26 2/3. Verdict: Touchable.

Ronan Kopp, 19, LHP. Has appeared in 19 games, six of them starts, with a 1.77, 1.230, 16.2 SO9. Verdict: Touchable.

Damon Keith, 22, OF, bats right, throws right, .305/.435/.517 with 11 homers and 63 RBIs, stick. Verdict: Touchable.

Luis Rodriguez, 19, OF, bats right, throws right, .240/.353/.376, 8 HR, 48 RBIs. Verdict: Touchable.

Jake Vogel, 20, OF, bats right, throws right, .251/.349/.365, 1 HR, 28 RBIs, 11 SB, 3 CS. Verdict: Touchable.

Conclusion:

If the Dodgers set their sights on Soto and/or Castillo or Montas (or Miami’s Pablo Lopez) and come away with an outfielder and an SP, God bless em. I trust Andrew Friedman to do what he thinks best in manners such as these. But let’s be clear. I think AF can get Castillo or Montas without coming within a mile of my untouchables and I know he can get Rodon for less than that.

There are plenty of impressive young players unmentioned here for the tradesmen to dicker over, with both parties coming out of the experience with smiles (or half-smiles) on their faces. Untouchables may become touchable and vice versa, so pay very close attention on August 2, if not before. And just because I’ve tabbed someone a touchable doesn’t mean I want them dealt. Far from it. I’ll have a column within 24 hours of the deadline, and comments galore that day on Twitter.

Baseball Photos of the Week:

Juan Soto.

Luis Castillo.

Carlos Rodon.

Joc Pederson.

Andrew Benintendi and Mookie Betts.

Ian Happ.

David Bednar just to the right of Sandy’s right foot.

And remember, glove conquers all.

Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the Internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter. Follow OBHC on Twitter here. Be friends with Howard on Facebook.

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