Anything The Padres Can Do The Dodgers Can Do Better
Nah, not really. The teams could not possibly be more evenly matched.
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. Which means, mathematically speaking, that they are better than each of the other 29 teams. The Padres are better than most, but not all of the other 29 teams. We can conclude therefore by the transitive property that the Dodgers > Padres, BABIP is a dumb stat, the equation for Einstein’s Theory of Relativity is y = mc squared and the formula for the slope of the line is y = mx + b.
My brother, Don, taught me that last one when I was 10 years old, so that when we got to the subject in school a couple of years later, I was the only boy in school who know it. Don also warned in the fall of 1970 that just because Johnny Bench was out-of-his-mind great at the age of 22, it doesn’t follow necessarily that he would be statistically better at 23, 24, 25 or whenever. Which turned out precisely to the case, as Bench set career highs in games (158), hits (177), triples (4), home runs (45), RBIs (148), batting average (.293), slugging (.587) and OPS (.932) that season, winning the Most Valuable Player Award in the end like everyone knew he would.
But I digress. It’s my column, so I can digress. And I stand by what I wrote on Monday:
“The teams are as evenly matched as can possibly be, 1 through 26 and at their respective alternate sites. The Dodgers are really, really good. And so are the Padres. If you don’t think the latter is true, you’re simply deluding yourself.”
The numbers, while helpful, prove nothing, but a few items to consider follow anyway. Make up your own mind. Or wait until October to do so. Or both. Or do neither and simply enjoy the games as they play out, beginning with the first L.A. versus S.D. matchup of 2021 tonight.
Los Angeles in 11-2, have won six straight, hold the best record in baseball as of this afternoon and are 54-19 going back to last season; 67-24 including the 2020 postseason. San Diego is 9-5 in 2021, tied for third place with San Francisco, 46-28 going back to 2020 and 55-33 including last October.
The Dodgers are hitting .285/.380/.495/.876 as a team, leading Major League Baseball in each category. The Pads are hitting .253/.349/.405/.754 and don’t lead the sport, the National League or the NL West in anything. L.A. leads S.D. in run differential, +34 to +17.
San Diego leads the sport in team ERA (2.38), strikeouts (144) and WHIP (1.032), has one shutout and is tied for the lead in saves (7) and no-hitters (1). L.A. has a team ERA of 2.94, 119 strikeouts, a 1.074 WHIP, with three shutouts and no no-hitters. L.A. starters have a 2.71 ERA, 82 Ks, a 0.954 WHIP and an opponents batting line of .213/.248/.316. Dodgers relievers have a 3.44 ERA, 37 Ks, a 1.336 WHIP and a .235/.323/.382. The Pads starters’ numbers are 2.78, 73, 1.067 and .198/.268/.364. Their relievers have a 1.94, 71, 0.994 and .210/.274/.306.
What conclusions can we draw from the batting and pitching statistics above and a bunch more that aren’t included here? Not a whole lot. So we’ll have to watch and learn, as is always the case; watch and enjoy, as is always the case. If I had to guess — and I don’t — I’d guess that the Dodgers will win the season series 11-8 and take two of three in the upcoming series.
The weekend probables at San Diego are as follows:
Walker Buehler vs. Ryan Weathers tonight at 7:10 p.m., Clayton Kershaw vs. Yu Darvish Saturday at 5:40 p.m. and Trevor Bauer vs. Blake Snell Sunday at 1:10 p.m.
Here are a few more numbers to ponder: Kershaw vs. San Diego lifetime: 21-7, 2.03, 0.977 and .192/.255/.297. Kersh at Petco Park: 9-3, 1.83, 0.870 and .173/.232/.277.
Buehler vs. the Padres lifetime: 4-0, 1.36, 0.727 and .147/.210/.294. Buehler at Petco Park: 1-0, 2.45, 1.091 and .189/.302/.459.
Bauer, in outings in 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019, has struggled with the Pads: 0-4, 5.06, 1.500 and .261/.343/.375. But his best two seasons were 2018 and 2020. He’s never pitched at Petco Park.
Darvish has faced Los Angeles once, two years ago, going seven innings with two hits and a walk allowed, plus 10 strikeouts. Snell started and went two innings at L.A. in 2019 without allowing a baserunner. Rookie Weathers has not yet faced the Dodgers in the regular season and has made three relief appearances in 2021, going three innings, one inning and two innings, in that order, and set a career high of 38 pitches in his April 3 debut.
Notes:
Some of the numbers above were provided by Warner Center Tax. Ask for BCW.
Find the Off Base with Howard Cole home page online here. And read this column online here.
Unfortunate Prediction:
Fernando Tatis, Jr. will dislocate his left shoulder again soon (possibly as early as tonight), swinging, and will undergo surgery within days.
ICYMI:
Dodgers vs. the NL West (since 2013): Versus the Padres – 94-49 (.657), vs. the Rockies – 94-56 (.626), vs. the D-Backs – 84-59 (.587) and vs. the Giants –73-70 (.510). Via Dodgers PR.
“With a franchise-best .717 winning percentage (43-17), the [2020] Dodgers posted the first .700+ win percentage season by an NL team since the 1909 Pirates (110-42, .724).” Also from Dodgers PR.
From the Rob-Manfred-has-a-better-idea department comes news that the Atlantic League will continue their recent history of playing around with the rules of baseball. How does the phase “61 feet, six inches” grab you? Because that’s what they’re doing.
I say why stop there? Why not move the mound from its current location on a straight line between home and second base to a position 20 feet closer to third base, so that right-hand hitters would have to look over their left shoulder to see the ball coming straight at them from behind their back, and even more so with a right-hander on the hill? Then place a second mound 20 feet closer to first base, which the pitcher will use to face left-hand hitters. Two mounds are better than one, right? More of something is better than fewer, correct? And while we’re at it, why not add a fifth base in shallow center field? Or in left field? Or in right?
Gibby Watch:
Plays of the Week:
Media Savvy:
I’m not a fan of the word “luck” to describe trends in baseball — especially when it comes to BABIP, which you rarely see referenced without either “good luck” or “bad luck” attached to it — and I don’t appreciate the usage below either, but it’s worth a minute of our time to discuss the great Jacob deGrom. Here’s the Neil Greenberg story: “Jacob deGrom is one of the unluckiest aces in baseball history” from Wednesday’s Washington Post.
deGrom is the poster child for those in the industry that hate pitcher wins. They hate them. They hate RBIs too, and increasingly batting average and ERA, but they especially hate wins. So much so that these people practically subtract Cy Young Award points from men who do well in the W department.
My feeling is that wins were given far too much weight for generations and now they’re given too little. The same goes for RBIs, batting average and ERA. My feeling is that a baseball savvy person can attach whatever weight to a specific stat or group of stats that he or she so chooses. But it’s simple enough to take in everything available without turning a blind eye to any one piece of information, so why do it?
The Mets don’t score runs for their god-like ace starter, nor do they pitch well in relief of him after he exists. And haven’t for years. It’s criminal, and I imagine Vin Scully would say that deGrom “should sue for lack of support.” Rather than employ the “luck” word to describe the sorry state of affairs in Queens, I prefer to just say “the Mets are awful.”
Because the editors at ESPN.com are discerning, they have the Dodgers atop of their MLB power rankings for week two.
And because it’s never too early to plan for next winter, the always-handy 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings are hot off the presses at MLBTR.
Media Savvy, Jackie Robinson Edition:
Because there is more Jackie Robinson material that one can possibly digest this time of the year, I’ll keep this to a minimum, beginning with a fine piece of writing by my friend Kavitha Davidson at the Athletic, followed by a four-year-old column of my own at Forbes and an eight-year-old piece at LA Weekly. For some reason my photograph no longer displays on the latter; it’s posted below.
And three tweets from sources you may not have seen on your own.
Oh, by the way:
Don’t tell me Bauer isn’t a role model. Because I wrote the first draft of this column with my right eye closed. Then edited with my left eye closed.
Baseball Photos of the Day:
Jim Bouton.
Willie Mays.
Roberto Clemente and Willie McCovey.
Rusty Staub.
And remember, glove conquers all.
Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the Internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter. Follow OBHC on Twitter here. Be friends with Howard on Facebook.
Read OBHC online here.
The only thing Manfred knows about baseball is that he couldn’t play it.